Last year Anderson had a very nice season, with a decent ERA, WHIP, and Ks. His FIP and xFIP were the in mid-threes, which is very strong. His FIP put him ahead of pitchers like Johan Santana, John Lackey, Chad Billingsley, and Cole Hamels. FIP is a very nice statistic, but when playing fantasy baseball we’re trying to minimize our ERA, WHIP, and maximize our Ks. Drafting for Ws is usually foolish as it has much to do with things outside of the pitchers’ control. We can safely assume that Red Sox and Yankees pitchers will have more of their good performances turned into wins, but overall you’re better off not trying to draft wins. The most important starting pitching category is probably strikeouts, but blindly drafting strikeouts can put a huge burden on your ERA and WHIP.

In Anderson we find the nice balance you want in your starters. His 7.7 K/9 is good, and his youth indicates it may have potential to get better. Where Anderson shines is K/BB. Strikeouts per base on balls is one of the best indicators of how good a pitcher really is. Anderson came in at 3.33 which is a very strong number. Young pitchers tend to improve in BB/9 even more so than K/9, so he could see an improvement on that 3.33 K/BB.

Anderson will also be the beneficiary of Oakland’s strong defensive group. An exceptional defense paired with very good pitching should make for a strong ERA and WHIP, with a good number of Ks. The wins are always hard to predict, and predicting young pitchers to breakout is always dangerous. Injuries and slumps can derail an entire season quickly. That said, when a player has potential to become elite it is better to be on board than to let someone else snag him. Anderson can jump into the top 20 starters this year. I’d put him at the head of the Lackey, Jake Peavy, Wandy Rodriguez, Matt Cain and Ubaldo Jimenez grouping.

First up is the Yankees newly acquired Curtis Granderson. He’s currently a sixth round pick in ESPN drafts and going for $16 in ESPN auctions. In Granderson’s “down” 2009 season he ended up 107th on ESPN’s player rater. While that isn’t where he was drafted, it wasn’t a horrible performance. Granderson was among the eight 30/20 players in 2009, but his batting average weighed heavily on his overall value. There are a number of reasons that you can expect Granderson to outperform last year’s numbers. On top of that Granderson has a very predictable platoon split, which means he gets most of his value in a smaller number of games. An active manager can bench him against LHP and not hurt their average nearly as much.

First of all, Granderson moves from Detroit to New York. This by itself pretty much ensures that Granderson will score or drive in 100 runs, if not both. I do not draft for RBIs or Rs because they are hard to predict, but the Yankees are consistently at the top of the league in runs, so this is a case where he gets a bump. Secondly, Granderson hits a lot of fly balls to right field. New Yankee Stadium gives up a lot of home runs to right field. Considering Granderson hit 30 HRs in a spacious Comerica Park in Detroit. Now consider that Johnny Damon his 17 HRs at New Yankee Stadium in 73 games. The evidence here is a bit anecdotal because of the limited number of PAs that New Yankee Stadium has, but I think it’s reasonable to say that Granderson should receive a boost in HRs. If he just matches his road home run to fly ball rate from 2009 in New York in 2010 he’d be expected to hit around 38 HRs.

Surprisingly, Granderson might be overrated as a base stealer. He’s stolen 20 bases twice, two of the last three seasons. In 2008 he stole 12, so while he may not be great, he’ll contribute and if he’s hitting 35 HRs that is great.

So Granderson will be a contributor in the four counting categories. The big question mark is his average, and rightfully so. Granderson put quite a few more balls in the air in 2009, which in turn lowered his BABIP. His .275 BABIP was by far the lowest of his career. Now the question is, does he go back to hitting fewer fly balls, or does he trade power for average. Either way it should play out to an increased batting average. If he hits fewer fly balls his BABIP should return to higher levels of the past and his average should increase. If he continues with the same profile as last year he should hit a few more HRs which very well could have been fly outs, which alone could increase his average from .250 to .260. On top of that, there is another way to maximize Granderson’s average, and that’s through platooning.

Granderson’s career numbers against LHP are bad. Granderson had a .275 average agaist RHP in 2009 and a .183 average against LHP. By simply benching him against LHP you’ll dramatically increase his AVG. On top of that you can play a match-up player or a bench player on those days increasing that line-up spots value even more. For 2010 I have Granderson as the 19th available hitter. He’s currently being drafted as the 43rd available hitter. Target him in the 4th or 5th round depending on your draft slot and you’ll be happy with the results.

In 2005 and 2009 Felipe Lopez was worth 4.6 WAR. What happened from 2006-08? He posted seasons of 1.6, 0.4, and 0.8. What do those three seasons have in common? He spent significant time with the Washington Nationals in each season. Now I can really only speculate, but when Lopez played with the Nationals he played horribly. I don’t know whether it was on purpose or not, but during the parts of three seasons where he was with Washington he posted 0 WAR in Washington. In his 128 games with the Cardinals and Reds during those same seasons he posted 2.8 WAR. Maybe there was something in the water in DC or maybe Lopez was just really unhappy to be on the worst team in baseball. The reasonable thing would be to think that it is just noise in the data, but the 2.8 WAR over 128 games fits much better with his 2005 and 2009 seasons.

Outside of the wild theory that Lopez hated playing with the Nationals, there are some other legitimate reasons to think he could out produce Hudson in 2010. First, Lopez is younger and closer to his prime than Hudson. Next, UZR seems to think that Lopez is currently a better 2B than Hudson. There isn’t enough data to really validate either way, but Hudson is no longer the defensive player he once was. Interestingly, both the fan projections and CHONE projections available on FanGraphs show Hudson and Lopez with identical 2.2 and 2.6 WAR seasons for 2010. The thing in Lopez’s favor is that he has the potential to have the better season. Where Hudson is consistent 2-3 WAR, Lopez has been as high as 4.6 WAR and as low as 0.4. The variability is favorable to the Mariners who appear to be in contention for a playoff spot, making the marginal value of each win higher. Basically Hudson’s upside is just above 3 WAR, while Felipe’s is just below 5 WAR. If you’re willing to exclude his time with the Nationals Lopez has been worth 3.9 WAR per 600 PAs. By comparison Hudson has been worth nearly 3.0 WAR per 600 PAs since 2004.

All of this said, it appears to be all for naught, as the season draws near and the trade locations for our own Lopez appear to be dwindling. On top of that the Hudson to Minnesota rumors grow louder, so Felipe may be our only option if Jose finds greener pastures.

http://twitter.com/Dejan_Kovacevic/statuses/5692138097

Trade Brandon Morrow to the Brewers for JJ Hardy

The Brewers are moving ahead to Alcides Escobar and Hardy is out of a job. The question that follows is why not retain Jack Wilson and Brandon Morrow rather than acquire Hardy. The answer is Hardy is better than Wilson, and possibly by quite a bit. Hardy isn’t quite as good in the field as Wilson, while he is a bit better as a hitter. In Hardy’s worst season as a hitter his wOBA was only .006 less than Wilson’s career wOBA. Hardy is younger, has two arbitration years left, and is the better player. Hardy’s poor hitting season couldn’t have come at a better time for other teams.

The other side of the coin is moving Brandon Morrow. I’m completely off the Brandon Morrow bandwagon, and I don’t think I was ever on it. Morrow is still oozing with potential, but he hasn’t shown much aside from a couple good starts and a decent stint in the bullpen. He’s trade chip number one in my eyes, and if he’s back in the spring I’ll be disappointed. I’m in total agreement with Dave on this one.

Trade Jose Lopez, Mark Lowe, and Jason Vargas to the White Sox for John Danks

This is probably the most interesting part of Dave’s post. Proposing trades with more than a couple players will always bring out the skeptic in people. The idea is sound though. Trade seemingly replaceable players with a player whose abilities will be leveraged with the team built around him. Setting aside whether the White Sox would do the trade or not, there aren’t a lot of left handers available, and fly ball lefties beyond that. Jonathan Sanchez could be an alternative to Danks.

To some Sanchez is more exciting than Danks because he has a very nice strikeout rate and more potential. I’d argue that Danks has more potential as a Mariner than Sanchez. Sanchez produced a better FIP than Danks last year, but there are reasons to think Danks would improve his numbers more with the Mariners. First, a fly ball pitcher’s home run rate is key. Danks would move from a launching pad to a fly ball friendly Safeco. Sanchez’s home park already denies home runs as well as anywhere in baseball. Danks also played in front of one of the worst defensive outfields in baseball, while Sanchez played in front of a top five defensive outfield. Sanchez may have had a better FIP this past season, and FIP is a great tool to evaluate pitchers, but when a certain team acquires a player context becomes very important. The Mariners’ defense should help Danks more than Sanchez.

Sign Nick Johnson and Russell Branyan

I’ve grouped these two together because they are essentially the same decision. The Mariners need a 1B and a DH heading into 2010. Basically the Mariners want to acquire the two best hitters they can and one needs to be able to play first base. I’ll exclude Holiday, Bay, and Abreu from the equation because they won’t be good values. That trims the list to Jim Thome, Carlos Delgado, Johnson, Branyan, and Hideki Matsui. This is a good list because each player is flawed in one way or another making them better values. Thome was the best in his prime, but is on the downside towards the end. However, Thome also has one of the best platoon splits, as he nearly managed a .900 OPS against right handers this season. Delgado probably has a bit more in the tank as he’s two years younger than Thome, but spent most of ‘09 on the DL. Johnson has been injury prone for most of his career but is the youngest and has the most upside of any of the mentioned players for 2010. Branyan showed in the first half of ‘09 what he is capable of when healthy and full playing time, and in the 2nd half showed what he is capable of when he isn’t. Matsui had a very nice comeback year and is still a capable hitter, but has been injury prone and is in the wrong half of his 30s.

Nick Johnson is the cream of the crop here in my eyes. Fickle fans will say he doesn’t hit enough home runs, but his OBP alone makes him a great hitter. I’m going to exclude Matsui because he doesn’t play first base, and considering the frailty of all these players it’s probably best that each is able to play some in the field. Thome could be excluded for the same reason, but I feel he could probably pick up the glove again if necessary. Thome, Delgado, and Branyan are such similar players it’s tempting to just write up the same offer and send it to all of their agents. I’d bet Branyan’s gets back with a signature on it fastest. Delgado does have the advantage of showing the least platoon split, so if the Mariners don’t want to carry a Mike Sweeney type this year, it’d be less important with Delgado.

Sign Orlando Hudson

The seat vacated by Jose Lopez needs to be filled and Hudson is a good candidate to replace him. The free agent candidates include Orlando Hudson, Placido Polanco, and Felipe Lopez. All three of them are type A free agents. If they all were willing to take the same offer I’d want Polanco, Hudson, and Lopez in that order. That would also assume that they are not offered arbitration. Anyone who is offered arbitration moves to the bottom of the list. If they’re all offered arbitration then it rolls over. The scariest part of trading Lopez is that there is no one in the Mariners’ system to replace him, so a free agent would be necessary.

Sign Ben Sheets

This is an interesting move because Sheets missed all of ‘09. If he’s completely healthy or even 90% healthy Sheets could have a very good year. In each season Sheets has pitched since 2002 he’s been worth at least two wins and has been worth at least 3.7 wins every season except one. Ben Sheets is a very good pitcher when he’s on the mound. In Dave’s most recent post he details different pitching options and their upside and downside. Basically his analysis is that the Mariners should take a risky pitcher for a discounted price. I couldn’t agree more; this is one season’s worth of salary, not your life savings. Sure, Kevin Millwood can get you a couple wins over the course of a season and is labeled as an inning eater, but you pay a premium for consistency. The worst part is that Millwood is consistently only slightly above average. Sheets is injury prone, but he can be lights out. The same can be said for Rich Harden and Erik Bedard.

For once I actually believe that the front office could pull off a great off season. Last year we weren’t sure what to expect, after year one, our expectations are pretty high. Actually, this plan is on the low end of my expectations. There could be a four win third baseman out there that hasn’t been uncovered that Zduriencik is able to get for a shiny Mark Lowe. I believe we’ll see an off season that gets the Mariners into the upper 80s in wins, which is very exciting.

Overrated

Saying someone is overrated in sports is one of the easiest things an analyst can do. All the analyst has to do is prove that someone else really likes the said player and he’s proven correct. With that said, the three players I deemed overrated to begin the season didn’t have their best seasons. Two of the predictions were accurate in my opinion, and the third was marginal.

After a very strong start Justin Morneau cooled off considerably. By the end of the season Morneau was rated 18th at 1B. Specifically I said that I preferred Derrek Lee, Adrian Gonzalez, and Joey Votto, all of whom finished well ahead of Morneau. Morneau’s end of the season injury definitely had a negative effect on his overall numbers, but I don’t think that would have pushed him past the above mentioned players.

John Lackey was another player I viewed as overrated coming into the season. Lackey actually pitched much better than he did in 2008, which was due to his HR rate coming back towards his career numbers. His K rate was similar to where it has been the past two seasons, which doesn’t make him a special fantasy pitcher. On a team as good as the Angels Lackey certainly could have gotten luckier in the W column, and that would have made his value quite a bit better. That said, you should never draft a pitcher for Ws. In short, if you drafted Lackey early he wasn’t your pitching ace and that’s what is expected of a top 50 pick.

Kevin Youkilis was the final player that I believed was overrated heading into 2009. The argument against Youkilis was that his 2008 HR rate was his career high by far. In ‘09 he went ahead and increased his HR rate. Youkilis had a great year all around. The downfall of players like Youkilis is that he doesn’t have 40 HR power and not a lot of speed to make up for it. Youkilis stole seven bases this year, which isn’t much, but it’s much better than zero. Ultimately, the only thing that stopped Youkilis from being an elite player this year was an injury, which isn’t something that is predictable. Youkilis definitely proved me wrong.

Underrated

Selecting underrated players is the most important part to fantasy success. Finding sleepers is also very important, but differentiating between the very good and good is where fantasy championships are won.

In the pre-season I touted Roy Halladay as the top fantasy pitcher in baseball. He ended up seventh on the player rater, which is very good, but it’s not first. The competition for the top spot was between Lincecum, Sabathia, Johan, and Halladay. For the value Halladay was a very good pick. Obviously big breakout seasons and a couple comebacks forced Halladay down to seventh. That said, Halladay was an anchor if you used your third round pick on him.

Vladimir Guerrero and Jay Bruce were two players I thought were underrated in the pre-season. Both were sidelined for long periods of time with injuries. That said, neither was really producing above their expected level and to be fair both were disappointing when they were playing. I still believe in Jay Bruce. Vladimir may have a couple decent seasons left, but he’s not a top 100 fantasy player for the remainder of his career.

Hunter Pence was the most frustrating of my underrated predictions. He actually had a very nice season, but Rs and RBIs stopped him from being a top fantasy player. Drafting for Rs and RBIs is similar to drafting for Ws. Understanding the general level of the lineup around the player is about the best thing to do in terms of predicting Rs and RBIs. When Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee both had well below expected seasons, Pence paid the price.

Finally, Chris Davis was the player I was most excited about in the pre-season. Young players with 50 HR power and 3B eligibility will do that. Unfortunately, Chris Davis stopped making contact with the baseball so his elite HR/FB rate never had a chance. Cutting your pre-season favorite is one of the hardest things to do in fantasy, and I had to do it on a lot of teams. If Davis can make contact he can still be a good source of power, but the 3B eligibility is gone, probably for good.

Sleeper

Picking sleepers can be one of the most satisfying parts of fantasy baseball. It’s also among the hardest. Dozens of players are suggested for sleepers each year, and a handful turn into gems. The remainder usually ends up back on the waiver wire just as easily as they were drafted.

Andy Sonnanstine was a pitcher that excited me this year. He ended up being one of the worst pitchers in baseball during his short stay in the majors this season. Everything that Sonnanstine had done well in the past he stopped doing well. Everything he hadn’t done well he did even worse. Part of sleeper picks is that they have to be easily replaceable. Hopefully those of you who picked up Sonnanstine were quick to adjust.

My next sleeper pitcher was Jered Weaver. I can confidently say that this was a good call. He ranked 22nd among starting pitchers, and considering where he was being drafted was well worth the selection. Something to do when looking at pitchers pre-season, is to look at where they were ranked the year before. For the most part pitchers don’t change in what they are capable of. If they’re extremely hyped one season, and then invisible the next, they are worth a look.

My final call was Nelson Cruz as a sleeper OF. This is another pick I’m very happy with. Cruz managed a 30-20 season despite missing over 30 games. His average left something to be desired, but his production outside of that was very strong. He’s a player that looking forward I believe could actually improve in 2010 based on his batted ball profile. If you drafted him in the last few rounds of your draft you probably did quite well in HRs and SBs.

The calls weren’t as strong as they could have been. If you drafted Chris Davis instead of Kevin Youkilis because of my recommendation, I’m sorry. If you drafted Jered Weaver instead of John Lackey as your Angel pitcher of choice, good for you. If I was grading myself really nicely, I’d say I got four calls right and three wrong. On the opposite end of things, there are only four calls I can really say were right, and the rest, seven, were wrong. I’ll leave the grades to you though.

One of the best parts of being a sports fan is tomorrow and now the 2010 Mariners are starting to take shape. This is what we can expect from the 2010 version of the squad.

That is 25.5 wins among 10 players. That means a team with these players and a bunch of replacement level players would be expected to win about 76 games. That is a very strong start and adding wins in the remaining roster could push the Mariners into the 2010 playoffs.

This is a list of players I expect to be on the opening day roster for the Mariners and a projection of their 2010 productivity. The first thing you may notice is that there are only three pitchers listed. There are plenty of candidates to be on the roster, but I don’t believe that anyone outside of the three listed have a safe job heading into 2010. Luke French, Ian Snell, Brandon Morrow, Jason Vargas, and Carlos Silva are among those that could be starting for the Mariners at the beginning of 2010. Among the bullpen there are multiple candidates having strong seasons that could return next year. Jack Zduriencik has shown that he believes he can find freely available relief pitching and I agree. If fact, I’m tempted to remove David Aardsma from the list because if Zduriencik can get a good offer for him he’s likely to move.

Among position players Ichiro, Gutierrez, Wilson, and Lopez were granted starting jobs. Hannahan and Hall’s production is based on a platoon situation at 3B. If the Mariners retain Adrian Beltre or acquire a full time 3B the production for Hannahan and Hall would decrease, but would be replaced by the new 3B. Logically the Mariners wouldn’t have a full time 3B that is worse than the productivity of Hannahan and Hall, and at 2.5 WAR I think the 3B roll is going to be the platoon. Langerhans value is based on him being a utility OF. Michael Saunders is the variable in the equation. If the front office believes he can be a productive full time player then he’ll see the majority of the playing time. If not, Langerhans could regain the starting spot, or another LF could be acquired. C, 1B, and DH are not addressed, and that is where the difference between the ‘09 offense and the ‘10 offense will be seen. I highly doubt that Griffey or Sweeney will see another game as Mariners, and I think neither is likely to have a job heading into ‘10.

So there are 10 spots committed on the roster. Eight more spots will be filled by pitchers and seven more spots to be filled by hitters. With the current roster and contracts owed the Mariners are expected to have around $15 million to spend in the offseason. It will be very interesting to see what the Mariners do with the available roster spots and money. I’d expect the pitching staff to be filled out with players at or near the league minimum and the majority of the money to be spent at the 1B and DH spots. In this case, the popular belief the Mariners need a big bat may very well be the answer to the Mariners playoff push.

If you’re looking to acquire keepers, there are two guys that are screaming “trade for me.” The first is Jay Bruce. He’s been out for a while, but the fact remains he’s going to be a great hitter. If he had a normal BABIP this season he would have been in the middle of his first monster season. As it is he was hitting for good power. If you aren’t contending this year and want to pick up Bruce you probably only need to surrender a nice piece to a team on a championship run. Bruce isn’t expected back soon, so he’s not going to help his owner. The next name is Justin Upton. An injury has Upton out for another 10 days at the least. I’d basically sell the farm for Upton, he’s young, hits for power, runs, and hits for average. He’s going to be a monster for a long time. Basically, if you aren’t in it this year, I’d trade any expendable pieces you have to acquire the younger Upton. When I say expendable pieces I mean players that won’t be better keepers than Upton.

There are a couple more interesting guys, and depending on how many players you keep, they are more or less interesting. Rookies Gordon Beckham and Pablo Sandoval are taking over the fantasy 3B position early in their careers. Beckham can probably be had for a useful piece if the owner has someone to fill in for him. Sandoval is interesting in that he’s producing enough this year that he’d be hard to acquire in a one year league. Add to that he’s going to be a good keeper, and you have a valuable asset. That may make him the most difficult to acquire of the whole crew.

Now, if you’re making a run for things and you have a player with good keeper potential, it isn’t prudent to just giveaway your keepers. If you can get a very good package for keepers, then it is something you have to consider. Too many people don’t take the opportunity to win their leagues when it presents itself. If you’re in a five keeper league, Justin Upton probably wasn’t drafted until after the 10th round. These players become available over the years. A bunch of second place finishes will get you some respect, but the guys who win leagues are the ones people aim for. If you have a player like Jason Bay, who should probably be a top 40 pick next year, he is a keeper. If you can get a couple decent starters and a reasonable outfielder, depending on your needs, don’t hesitate to move him. These moves are less player specific, and I don’t recommend breaking apart the heart of your long term team, but the marginal keepers are ones that you can leverage for a championship run.

For power options Kyle Blanks and Marcus Thames are probably the best options getting consistent playing time. To get the most value from Thames you can start him only against left handed pitchers.

For average, most of the time I try to use the addition by subtraction approach. If you can replace a .250 hitter with a .280 hitter, then you’re doing pretty well. The average guys are pretty boring names but can be helpful; Garret Anderson, Placido Polanco, Billy Butler, and Nick Johnson are among the players that can help you a tick or two in average.

As for speed, Everth Cabrera is the guy you want. He’s starting everyday and he’s running like crazy. If he can continue hitting like he has been over the last 10 days or so he can be a big contributor. Rajai Davis has been hitting and running, but his playing time isn’t full time. Since the Holliday trade he’s been playing and on fire.

Pitching is always tricky, and most of the time I don’t recommend keeping a player more than just the start you need him for. The key here is strikeout pitchers in winnable match-ups. Today there are two good examples that I’ve grabbed. Jonathan Sanchez has been pitching decently outside of his no-hitter, but he’s also a strike out pitcher playing against the meager Astros. Another pitcher I liked for today’s options is Derek Holland against the Athletics.

To be fair, we don’t know what was being asked for in exchange for Brignac or Hardy, but from the rumors and expectations every package included Jarrod Washburn. Brignac is an unknown in current major league value, but I’d guess he’s about league average. Hardy and Wilson make for an easy comparison. This has been Wilson’s best defensive year to date, and while not an offensive force, he’s only slightly below average as a hitter. In ’07 and ’08 JJ Hardy was worth four and a half wins each season. This year he’s been above average on defense, as he usually is, and not quite the same hitter he’d been in the past. If the season was starting over today, I’d expect Wilson to be worth about 3.5 - 4 wins, and Hardy to be worth 3.5 to 4.5 wins.

The other thing to take into consideration is team control and years remaining. Well, Hardy is under team control through ’10 and Wilson has an option for ’10 as well. The dollar value of Hardy’s contract would be expected to be around 80% of his free market value. At his low expected value of 3.5 wins he’d be expected to get $12 million, so it’s very safe to say he’s probably going to make at least $10 million in ’10. Wilson’s extension is for $8.4 million, not a bad deal. On top of that Wilson was acquired with cash to cover his remaining salary for ’09. Wilson comes out ahead in the financial commitment over the next two years against Hardy. Brignac is on another level financially, but like I said, there is no way to know what was being asked for.

I think Wilson was probably the best option the Mariners had. Some are concerned about the number of prospects moving to Pittsburgh, but only time will tell whether those players will pan out. Cedeno has proven himself as a replacement level player; there is nothing to be upset about there. Clement still has some potential to be a big league contributor, but the new management has shown that they value defense behind the plate more than offensive contribution. Clement had established himself as a poor defender in the management’s eyes. As for the pitchers, like I’ve detailed before, I believe Jack Zduriencik prefers a shorter, more athletic pitcher. He’s established that prototypical size isn’t one of his priorities and the arms moving to Pittsburgh are some of the biggest boys in the Mariners system, all over 6’4” with Lorin topping out at 6’7”.

The kicker in the trade is Ian Snell. Snell has been a decent pitcher throughout his career, and while not exceptional, someone who can put together some very strong outings. His best season was ’07 when he threw over 200 innings of 4.01 FIP baseball. That was the only year that Snell really seemed to have decent control, and if he can regain and establish some control he could be a very nice starter.

All in all, I think the Mariners win the trade. One of the pitchers may come back and make himself into a major league starter, but in my eyes, giving up 6 years of Jeff Clement is worth a year and a half of Jack Wilson and Ian Snell. Add to that if Snell puts it together there are two more very good team option years at the end of Snell’s contract, and Jack Zduriencik could end up smelling like roses again.