COREYJRO - Seattle Mariners Baseball Blog

I initially intended to write a similar post to Dave from USSMariner’s 2010 Off-Season Plan. Unfortunately, the longer I looked at things the more I began to agree with most of his decisions. I say unfortunate because it’s a fun post write, but if I only change two moves from what Dave did it wouldn’t be much of a post. So instead I’ll take a look Dave’s moves for 2010 and give my take on things.

Trade Brandon Morrow to the Brewers for JJ Hardy

The Brewers are moving ahead to Alcides Escobar and Hardy is out of a job. The question that follows is why not retain Jack Wilson and Brandon Morrow rather than acquire Hardy. The answer is Hardy is better than Wilson, and possibly by quite a bit. Hardy isn’t quite as good in the field as Wilson, while he is a bit better as a hitter. In Hardy’s worst season as a hitter his wOBA was only .006 less than Wilson’s career wOBA. Hardy is younger, has two arbitration years left, and is the better player. Hardy’s poor hitting season couldn’t have come at a better time for other teams.

The other side of the coin is moving Brandon Morrow. I’m completely off the Brandon Morrow bandwagon, and I don’t think I was ever on it. Morrow is still oozing with potential, but he hasn’t shown much aside from a couple good starts and a decent stint in the bullpen. He’s trade chip number one in my eyes, and if he’s back in the spring I’ll be disappointed. I’m in total agreement with Dave on this one.

Trade Jose Lopez, Mark Lowe, and Jason Vargas to the White Sox for John Danks

This is probably the most interesting part of Dave’s post. Proposing trades with more than a couple players will always bring out the skeptic in people. The idea is sound though. Trade seemingly replaceable players with a player whose abilities will be leveraged with the team built around him. Setting aside whether the White Sox would do the trade or not, there aren’t a lot of left handers available, and fly ball lefties beyond that. Jonathan Sanchez could be an alternative to Danks.

To some Sanchez is more exciting than Danks because he has a very nice strikeout rate and more potential. I’d argue that Danks has more potential as a Mariner than Sanchez. Sanchez produced a better FIP than Danks last year, but there are reasons to think Danks would improve his numbers more with the Mariners. First, a fly ball pitcher’s home run rate is key. Danks would move from a launching pad to a fly ball friendly Safeco. Sanchez’s home park already denies home runs as well as anywhere in baseball. Danks also played in front of one of the worst defensive outfields in baseball, while Sanchez played in front of a top five defensive outfield. Sanchez may have had a better FIP this past season, and FIP is a great tool to evaluate pitchers, but when a certain team acquires a player context becomes very important. The Mariners’ defense should help Danks more than Sanchez.

Sign Nick Johnson and Russell Branyan

I’ve grouped these two together because they are essentially the same decision. The Mariners need a 1B and a DH heading into 2010. Basically the Mariners want to acquire the two best hitters they can and one needs to be able to play first base. I’ll exclude Holiday, Bay, and Abreu from the equation because they won’t be good values. That trims the list to Jim Thome, Carlos Delgado, Johnson, Branyan, and Hideki Matsui. This is a good list because each player is flawed in one way or another making them better values. Thome was the best in his prime, but is on the downside towards the end. However, Thome also has one of the best platoon splits, as he nearly managed a .900 OPS against right handers this season. Delgado probably has a bit more in the tank as he’s two years younger than Thome, but spent most of ‘09 on the DL. Johnson has been injury prone for most of his career but is the youngest and has the most upside of any of the mentioned players for 2010. Branyan showed in the first half of ‘09 what he is capable of when healthy and full playing time, and in the 2nd half showed what he is capable of when he isn’t. Matsui had a very nice comeback year and is still a capable hitter, but has been injury prone and is in the wrong half of his 30s.

Nick Johnson is the cream of the crop here in my eyes. Fickle fans will say he doesn’t hit enough home runs, but his OBP alone makes him a great hitter. I’m going to exclude Matsui because he doesn’t play first base, and considering the frailty of all these players it’s probably best that each is able to play some in the field. Thome could be excluded for the same reason, but I feel he could probably pick up the glove again if necessary. Thome, Delgado, and Branyan are such similar players it’s tempting to just write up the same offer and send it to all of their agents. I’d bet Branyan’s gets back with a signature on it fastest. Delgado does have the advantage of showing the least platoon split, so if the Mariners don’t want to carry a Mike Sweeney type this year, it’d be less important with Delgado.

Sign Orlando Hudson

The seat vacated by Jose Lopez needs to be filled and Hudson is a good candidate to replace him. The free agent candidates include Orlando Hudson, Placido Polanco, and Felipe Lopez. All three of them are type A free agents. If they all were willing to take the same offer I’d want Polanco, Hudson, and Lopez in that order. That would also assume that they are not offered arbitration. Anyone who is offered arbitration moves to the bottom of the list. If they’re all offered arbitration then it rolls over. The scariest part of trading Lopez is that there is no one in the Mariners’ system to replace him, so a free agent would be necessary.

Sign Ben Sheets

This is an interesting move because Sheets missed all of ‘09. If he’s completely healthy or even 90% healthy Sheets could have a very good year. In each season Sheets has pitched since 2002 he’s been worth at least two wins and has been worth at least 3.7 wins every season except one. Ben Sheets is a very good pitcher when he’s on the mound. In Dave’s most recent post he details different pitching options and their upside and downside. Basically his analysis is that the Mariners should take a risky pitcher for a discounted price. I couldn’t agree more; this is one season’s worth of salary, not your life savings. Sure, Kevin Millwood can get you a couple wins over the course of a season and is labeled as an inning eater, but you pay a premium for consistency. The worst part is that Millwood is consistently only slightly above average. Sheets is injury prone, but he can be lights out. The same can be said for Rich Harden and Erik Bedard.

For once I actually believe that the front office could pull off a great off season. Last year we weren’t sure what to expect, after year one, our expectations are pretty high. Actually, this plan is on the low end of my expectations. There could be a four win third baseman out there that hasn’t been uncovered that Zduriencik is able to get for a shiny Mark Lowe. I believe we’ll see an off season that gets the Mariners into the upper 80s in wins, which is very exciting.

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