Owning Up
October 6th, 2009 | Published in Fantasy Baseball
In the pre-season I felt strongly enough about eleven players to write that they were either overrated, underrated, or a sleeper for the 2009 season. Now that the final bell has rung I think it’s time for me to take a look back and see just how accurate I was.
Overrated
Saying someone is overrated in sports is one of the easiest things an analyst can do. All the analyst has to do is prove that someone else really likes the said player and he’s proven correct. With that said, the three players I deemed overrated to begin the season didn’t have their best seasons. Two of the predictions were accurate in my opinion, and the third was marginal.
After a very strong start Justin Morneau cooled off considerably. By the end of the season Morneau was rated 18th at 1B. Specifically I said that I preferred Derrek Lee, Adrian Gonzalez, and Joey Votto, all of whom finished well ahead of Morneau. Morneau’s end of the season injury definitely had a negative effect on his overall numbers, but I don’t think that would have pushed him past the above mentioned players.
John Lackey was another player I viewed as overrated coming into the season. Lackey actually pitched much better than he did in 2008, which was due to his HR rate coming back towards his career numbers. His K rate was similar to where it has been the past two seasons, which doesn’t make him a special fantasy pitcher. On a team as good as the Angels Lackey certainly could have gotten luckier in the W column, and that would have made his value quite a bit better. That said, you should never draft a pitcher for Ws. In short, if you drafted Lackey early he wasn’t your pitching ace and that’s what is expected of a top 50 pick.
Kevin Youkilis was the final player that I believed was overrated heading into 2009. The argument against Youkilis was that his 2008 HR rate was his career high by far. In ‘09 he went ahead and increased his HR rate. Youkilis had a great year all around. The downfall of players like Youkilis is that he doesn’t have 40 HR power and not a lot of speed to make up for it. Youkilis stole seven bases this year, which isn’t much, but it’s much better than zero. Ultimately, the only thing that stopped Youkilis from being an elite player this year was an injury, which isn’t something that is predictable. Youkilis definitely proved me wrong.
Underrated
Selecting underrated players is the most important part to fantasy success. Finding sleepers is also very important, but differentiating between the very good and good is where fantasy championships are won.
In the pre-season I touted Roy Halladay as the top fantasy pitcher in baseball. He ended up seventh on the player rater, which is very good, but it’s not first. The competition for the top spot was between Lincecum, Sabathia, Johan, and Halladay. For the value Halladay was a very good pick. Obviously big breakout seasons and a couple comebacks forced Halladay down to seventh. That said, Halladay was an anchor if you used your third round pick on him.
Vladimir Guerrero and Jay Bruce were two players I thought were underrated in the pre-season. Both were sidelined for long periods of time with injuries. That said, neither was really producing above their expected level and to be fair both were disappointing when they were playing. I still believe in Jay Bruce. Vladimir may have a couple decent seasons left, but he’s not a top 100 fantasy player for the remainder of his career.
Hunter Pence was the most frustrating of my underrated predictions. He actually had a very nice season, but Rs and RBIs stopped him from being a top fantasy player. Drafting for Rs and RBIs is similar to drafting for Ws. Understanding the general level of the lineup around the player is about the best thing to do in terms of predicting Rs and RBIs. When Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee both had well below expected seasons, Pence paid the price.
Finally, Chris Davis was the player I was most excited about in the pre-season. Young players with 50 HR power and 3B eligibility will do that. Unfortunately, Chris Davis stopped making contact with the baseball so his elite HR/FB rate never had a chance. Cutting your pre-season favorite is one of the hardest things to do in fantasy, and I had to do it on a lot of teams. If Davis can make contact he can still be a good source of power, but the 3B eligibility is gone, probably for good.
Sleeper
Picking sleepers can be one of the most satisfying parts of fantasy baseball. It’s also among the hardest. Dozens of players are suggested for sleepers each year, and a handful turn into gems. The remainder usually ends up back on the waiver wire just as easily as they were drafted.
Andy Sonnanstine was a pitcher that excited me this year. He ended up being one of the worst pitchers in baseball during his short stay in the majors this season. Everything that Sonnanstine had done well in the past he stopped doing well. Everything he hadn’t done well he did even worse. Part of sleeper picks is that they have to be easily replaceable. Hopefully those of you who picked up Sonnanstine were quick to adjust.
My next sleeper pitcher was Jered Weaver. I can confidently say that this was a good call. He ranked 22nd among starting pitchers, and considering where he was being drafted was well worth the selection. Something to do when looking at pitchers pre-season, is to look at where they were ranked the year before. For the most part pitchers don’t change in what they are capable of. If they’re extremely hyped one season, and then invisible the next, they are worth a look.
My final call was Nelson Cruz as a sleeper OF. This is another pick I’m very happy with. Cruz managed a 30-20 season despite missing over 30 games. His average left something to be desired, but his production outside of that was very strong. He’s a player that looking forward I believe could actually improve in 2010 based on his batted ball profile. If you drafted him in the last few rounds of your draft you probably did quite well in HRs and SBs.
The calls weren’t as strong as they could have been. If you drafted Chris Davis instead of Kevin Youkilis because of my recommendation, I’m sorry. If you drafted Jered Weaver instead of John Lackey as your Angel pitcher of choice, good for you. If I was grading myself really nicely, I’d say I got four calls right and three wrong. On the opposite end of things, there are only four calls I can really say were right, and the rest, seven, were wrong. I’ll leave the grades to you though.
