2010 Mariners
September 10th, 2009 | Published in Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have fallen out of playoff contention, but could still manage an above .500 record. That .500 record is something many fans thought unlikely considering the team’s atrocious 2008.
One of the best parts of being a sports fan is tomorrow and now the 2010 Mariners are starting to take shape. This is what we can expect from the 2010 version of the squad.
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That is 25.5 wins among 10 players. That means a team with these players and a bunch of replacement level players would be expected to win about 76 games. That is a very strong start and adding wins in the remaining roster could push the Mariners into the 2010 playoffs.
This is a list of players I expect to be on the opening day roster for the Mariners and a projection of their 2010 productivity. The first thing you may notice is that there are only three pitchers listed. There are plenty of candidates to be on the roster, but I don’t believe that anyone outside of the three listed have a safe job heading into 2010. Luke French, Ian Snell, Brandon Morrow, Jason Vargas, and Carlos Silva are among those that could be starting for the Mariners at the beginning of 2010. Among the bullpen there are multiple candidates having strong seasons that could return next year. Jack Zduriencik has shown that he believes he can find freely available relief pitching and I agree. If fact, I’m tempted to remove David Aardsma from the list because if Zduriencik can get a good offer for him he’s likely to move.
Among position players Ichiro, Gutierrez, Wilson, and Lopez were granted starting jobs. Hannahan and Hall’s production is based on a platoon situation at 3B. If the Mariners retain Adrian Beltre or acquire a full time 3B the production for Hannahan and Hall would decrease, but would be replaced by the new 3B. Logically the Mariners wouldn’t have a full time 3B that is worse than the productivity of Hannahan and Hall, and at 2.5 WAR I think the 3B roll is going to be the platoon. Langerhans value is based on him being a utility OF. Michael Saunders is the variable in the equation. If the front office believes he can be a productive full time player then he’ll see the majority of the playing time. If not, Langerhans could regain the starting spot, or another LF could be acquired. C, 1B, and DH are not addressed, and that is where the difference between the ‘09 offense and the ‘10 offense will be seen. I highly doubt that Griffey or Sweeney will see another game as Mariners, and I think neither is likely to have a job heading into ‘10.
So there are 10 spots committed on the roster. Eight more spots will be filled by pitchers and seven more spots to be filled by hitters. With the current roster and contracts owed the Mariners are expected to have around $15 million to spend in the offseason. It will be very interesting to see what the Mariners do with the available roster spots and money. I’d expect the pitching staff to be filled out with players at or near the league minimum and the majority of the money to be spent at the 1B and DH spots. In this case, the popular belief the Mariners need a big bat may very well be the answer to the Mariners playoff push.
