Trade Breakdown
July 29th, 2009 | Published in Seattle Mariners
The expected Mariners trade happened last night and was announced this morning. From what I’ve gathered many Mariner fans are underwhelmed by the trade, and that might come from hoping the shortstop the team would receive might be Reid Brignac or JJ Hardy. That is understandable as they are younger and more exciting, but for the price I think Wilson could end up being the best deal for the Mariners.
To be fair, we don’t know what was being asked for in exchange for Brignac or Hardy, but from the rumors and expectations every package included Jarrod Washburn. Brignac is an unknown in current major league value, but I’d guess he’s about league average. Hardy and Wilson make for an easy comparison. This has been Wilson’s best defensive year to date, and while not an offensive force, he’s only slightly below average as a hitter. In ’07 and ’08 JJ Hardy was worth four and a half wins each season. This year he’s been above average on defense, as he usually is, and not quite the same hitter he’d been in the past. If the season was starting over today, I’d expect Wilson to be worth about 3.5 - 4 wins, and Hardy to be worth 3.5 to 4.5 wins.
The other thing to take into consideration is team control and years remaining. Well, Hardy is under team control through ’10 and Wilson has an option for ’10 as well. The dollar value of Hardy’s contract would be expected to be around 80% of his free market value. At his low expected value of 3.5 wins he’d be expected to get $12 million, so it’s very safe to say he’s probably going to make at least $10 million in ’10. Wilson’s extension is for $8.4 million, not a bad deal. On top of that Wilson was acquired with cash to cover his remaining salary for ’09. Wilson comes out ahead in the financial commitment over the next two years against Hardy. Brignac is on another level financially, but like I said, there is no way to know what was being asked for.
I think Wilson was probably the best option the Mariners had. Some are concerned about the number of prospects moving to Pittsburgh, but only time will tell whether those players will pan out. Cedeno has proven himself as a replacement level player; there is nothing to be upset about there. Clement still has some potential to be a big league contributor, but the new management has shown that they value defense behind the plate more than offensive contribution. Clement had established himself as a poor defender in the management’s eyes. As for the pitchers, like I’ve detailed before, I believe Jack Zduriencik prefers a shorter, more athletic pitcher. He’s established that prototypical size isn’t one of his priorities and the arms moving to Pittsburgh are some of the biggest boys in the Mariners system, all over 6’4” with Lorin topping out at 6’7”.
The kicker in the trade is Ian Snell. Snell has been a decent pitcher throughout his career, and while not exceptional, someone who can put together some very strong outings. His best season was ’07 when he threw over 200 innings of 4.01 FIP baseball. That was the only year that Snell really seemed to have decent control, and if he can regain and establish some control he could be a very nice starter.
All in all, I think the Mariners win the trade. One of the pitchers may come back and make himself into a major league starter, but in my eyes, giving up 6 years of Jeff Clement is worth a year and a half of Jack Wilson and Ian Snell. Add to that if Snell puts it together there are two more very good team option years at the end of Snell’s contract, and Jack Zduriencik could end up smelling like roses again.
