Extending Felix
July 28th, 2009 | Published in Seattle Mariners
The Mariners are losing ground in the AL West and it is time for fans to start looking ahead to better times. The trade deadline is a great time to get excited about the future, but one of the players of the future is about %60 done as a Mariner. The King will have two more years of team control after ‘09. It seems obvious that if any current Mariner player deserves a big contract Felix is that player. The question is, just how much is Felix worth?
As a general rule in the second arbitration year the player will make about 60% of their free market value and in the third arbitration year the player will receive 80% of their free market value. So, the next question is, how much is Felix worth on the free market? Over the previous three seasons Felix was valued at just under four wins above replacement. WAR are valued at about $4.5 million for the ‘09 season according to FanGraphs. In ‘09 Felix has also stepped his game up, and at his current performance Felix is on pace for 6.5 WAR. That makes his projected value for the ‘09 season $29 million. He’s a very good pitcher.
For simplicity, I’m going to project that Felix doesn’t quite finish the year as strong and that the value of a win is a little high as well and say that Felix is worth $25 million. So to sign Felix to a five year extension at market you’d expect to pay $125 million(5 years of market price *$25 million). Now taking into account the two years of team control that the Mariners would be buying out you’d expect them to pay $110 million (4.4 years of market price * $25 million). As a general rule players will take a 10% discount for a long term deal. $110 million * 90% = $99 million. We’ll round up to $100 because that is a huge psycholigical barrier and it would probably make Felix happy. So to retain Felix for the next 5 years the Mariners would pay $100 million.
The interesting opportunity the Mariners have for the ‘10 season is the ability to give Felix a big fat check for that season. The Mariners have more than $40 million coming off the books for 2010. I think most fans would say that the Mariners need to go sign a big name player to make a run at the playoffs. The problem with that is, there isn’t much talent available. Rather than make a splash in free agency, the M’s could make a splash for their future by giving Felix $30 million. Taking the hit on their budget in 2010 will give the M’s a $7.5 million advantage the next four season of Felix’s contract, as he earns $17.5 million.
If the Mariners can’t find a good use for their budget in 2010, giving Felix a nice fat start to his big earnings years wouldn’t be a bad way to help make the Mariners more competitive in ‘11-’13.
