COREYJRO - Seattle Mariners Baseball Blog

Most have settled on the fact that Dustin Ackley will be the consolation prize to the Stephen Strasburg sweepstakes. Depending on the source Ackley would have been a top player in last year’s draft, or just an average hitter in that draft. There is little doubt that Ackley is having an amazing season for North Carolina, but just how good is it?

Ackley’s late season run puts him at 21 HRs on the year with a 1.301 OPS. There have been quite a few players drafted very early out of the ACC and I’ve compared their seasons to Ackley’s. The list of players Ackley is compared to are very impressive, including superstars Mark Teixeira and Ryan Braun. Major league regulars Stephen Drew and Ryan Zimmerman are also recent selections from the ACC. Top prospects Buster Posey, Yonder Alonso, Matt Weiters, and Jemile Weeks also came from the ACC. Weiters is the top prospect in baseball, Posey is ranked 14th, and Alonso is ranked 35th according to Baseball America, so this is a serious list of prospects.

It is hard to conclude a lot from college statistics, and that has been proven quite often. Taking the context of the types of players and the relative level of play they’re participating in makes the comparisons more legitimate.

The first thing to notice is how ridiculous Posey’s season was last year. He out does every player on the list by a good margin. Ackley is in the next group with Teixeira and Alonso in OPS and OBP. Obviously, that is very good company. Coming into the draft Teixeira was considered an elite prospect where as Alonso was considered just a great bat. Ackley is quite a bit better all around prospect than Alonso, and nearly the same offensively. Ackley has a defensive position advantage over Teixeira, but Teixeira profiled as a better hitter with scouts.

The next group below Ackley includes Ryan Braun, Matt Wieters, and Stephen Drew. Coming out of school Drew was incredibly hyped, as a major league ready SS with a very good bat, it was probably appropriate. Defensively Drew is becoming a below average SS when he should be at his defensive prime. Ryan Braun was a 3B with raw power coming out of the draft. His power obviously translated very well as a professional. His OPS is a little bit lower than the others because he didn’t draw as many walks as other players, but he’s probably the best player of the group. Matt Wieters has become the next big thing as the top ranked prospect in baseball. Wieters is similar to Braun and Teixeira in regard to him being someone scouts liked for skills and also produced at the college level. Playing C has made Wieters an even more exciting prospect.

The remaining two players are a little bit more interesting. Ryan Zimmerman and Jemile Weeks, specifically Zimmerman, weren’t drafted just for their bats. Zimmerman was drafted as a strong defensive player with a good bat and Weeks was drafted as a player with tools and upside more so than for his production. As indicated in the chart, neither slugged much in college. Zimmerman is in the midst of a breakout year, while Weeks is just getting his professional career started.

So what does this all say about Dustin Ackley? It is hard to say much about the 2008 draftees, although each has been seemingly successful in their early minor league careers. Teixeira, Braun, and Zimmerman have to be considered good selections at this point in their careers. Matt Weiters is probably the most exciting prospect in baseball. The comparable players are a very strong group.

Ackley should be the Mariners’ second best prospect behind Michael Saunders at the beginning of 2010. I’d also expect Ackley to be a top 25 prospect in all of baseball, considering Yonder Alonso was #35 while playing a poor 1B. Ackley is often compared to Chase Utley, which is warranted considering a number of their similarities. Tony Gwynn could be another comparison, as many scouts view Ackley is a future batting champion. As far as productive college hitters go, Ackley is among the best over the last decade, not a bad consolation prize.

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