Underrated: Brett Anderson
Brett Anderson has been given the label of fantasy sleeper for the 2010 season. By the time your draft rolls around he may no longer be a value pick, but I think he’s still underrated according to ESPN’s rankings.
Last year Anderson had a very nice season, with a decent ERA, WHIP, and Ks. His FIP and xFIP were the in mid-threes, which is very strong. His FIP put him ahead of pitchers like Johan Santana, John Lackey, Chad Billingsley, and Cole Hamels. FIP is a very nice statistic, but when playing fantasy baseball we’re trying to minimize our ERA, WHIP, and maximize our Ks. Drafting for Ws is usually foolish as it has much to do with things outside of the pitchers’ control. We can safely assume that Red Sox and Yankees pitchers will have more of their good performances turned into wins, but overall you’re better off not trying to draft wins. The most important starting pitching category is probably strikeouts, but blindly drafting strikeouts can put a huge burden on your ERA and WHIP.
In Anderson we find the nice balance you want in your starters. His 7.7 K/9 is good, and his youth indicates it may have potential to get better. Where Anderson shines is K/BB. Strikeouts per base on balls is one of the best indicators of how good a pitcher really is. Anderson came in at 3.33 which is a very strong number. Young pitchers tend to improve in BB/9 even more so than K/9, so he could see an improvement on that 3.33 K/BB.
Anderson will also be the beneficiary of Oakland’s strong defensive group. An exceptional defense paired with very good pitching should make for a strong ERA and WHIP, with a good number of Ks. The wins are always hard to predict, and predicting young pitchers to breakout is always dangerous. Injuries and slumps can derail an entire season quickly. That said, when a player has potential to become elite it is better to be on board than to let someone else snag him. Anderson can jump into the top 20 starters this year. I’d put him at the head of the Lackey, Jake Peavy, Wandy Rodriguez, Matt Cain and Ubaldo Jimenez grouping.
